||From recent years, government, institutions and NGO in Lebanon are making huge efforts to carry out reforestation programs throughout all the country. In this context, the future potentiality of the species used in reforestation under different climate change scenarios is a useful tool to understand which species should be used in each location, taking into consideration the site conditions but also future climate effects.
For this purpose, almost seven thousand points of presence and twelve thousand points of absence were identified along the Lebanese territory. Adding climatic variables for current conditions and running models with Biomod2 R-package platform for future scenarios, ensemble projections for each species were obtained.
This study shows the Species Distribution Model for 2050 considering twenty main native species commonly used in reforestation in Lebanon, under A2 and B1 IPCC scenarios. In addition to this, vulnerability classification of Lebanese territory in terms of species richness loss caused by climate change was conducted determining the critical areas to be resorted and/or protected in terms of species diversity.
Finally, general guidelines for future management and measures for adaptation and mitigation to Climate Change are proposed for each species and case of potentially status in the future. In terms of potential species richness loss, specific actions were set for the considered critical areas.
The generated maps and raster files will help the forest manager in decision-making regarding the priority areas for restoring or managing and the potential species to be used considering future effects of climate change.